Friday, September 15, 2006

Is it possible that I suck?

In a word...NO.

It sure can seem that way though. I'm in the midst of the worst downswing I've ever had. It really blows! I'll give you the short version of what's happening. June was an ok month. July was a great month. August was a great month. The first 3 days of September constituted the best start I've ever had to a month. Then I had a day in which I logged my largest loss ever. Four figures worth of loss. To put it bluntly, I haven't had a winning day since. Brutal. 5/10 became 3/6. 3/6 became 2/4. 2/4 became 1/2. Sick. What do you do when you run like this? Mathematically it's bordering on not possible. I've reviewed my stats, and I'm in the red w/ KK & QQ. How the F do you manage that? Yesterday I noticed I wasn't "not hitting" my draws, I just didn't have any hand to draw with. My #'s are ok, my starting hands are ok. My biggest issue is that I've backed off over the last 4 or 5 days. I think it's a result of getting my d!$& stepped on so much the last 11 days.

What to do! Well, I'm not going to play cash games for at least a few days. I played some heads up SnG's yesterday. These are +ev for me. I'll throw in some 9-man limit SnG's over the weekend. I'm ONLY playing SnG's until I'm comfortable jumping into 2/4. That will most likely take me a few weeks. I flat out refuse to re-load. If this were November, I'd be stuck re-loading. It takes money to make money you know. For now, this will be a good exercise, and I'm too proud to re-load. Well, that and I'm a bit concerned this will continue. Based on typical ROR #'s using my combined win rate, SD, and bankroll, there is a 1.8% chance of this happening to me. It is a "statistical improbability". Yeah, my ass.

On the plus side, the belt for the mower will be in early next week. I miss riding the lawn mower. I'd like to do it a few more times before the snow flies. The leaves are starting to change. Freaking beautiful. I'm going to plan a day trip to Lechworth State Park in the next few weeks. It's a great place, especially before fall.

I've got some friends planning a "reunion" type of activity. I really don't want to go. One the one side, I can't believe someone has known me for 20 years without them killing me or me killing them. On the other side, I really don't like get togethers, and my schedule has sucked for the last 2 months. I just don't like people. I do enjoy telling stories about youth. Blissful, stupid youth. I guess we'll just have to see.

I'm going to play 20 to 25 SnG's this weekend. My goal is to win 70% of the HU ones, and have a 25% ROI on the rest. That's all I've got. Good luck at the tables...

1 Comments:

At 16 September, 2006 09:42 , Blogger Chris said...

Tough run man. If it makes you feel any better, I managed to drop more than 500 at 2/4 last weekend. Four digits has to hurt though. Take it easy man.

 

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