October...where have you been all my life?

We had our first frost of the season today. I woke up late (about 8am) and it was 38.2 degrees. Crops are being harvested, furnaces are kicking on, and jackets are coming out of the closet (I suspected that about them anyway). I wish I had my camera on the drive home last night. The clouds were spectacular. Some scattered “lake effect” rain bands. It was absolutely beautiful. I’m really looking forward to winter this year, although I’m sure that will change in 3 months.

What a month. It was by far my worst ever. It’s actually difficult to wrap my mind around the cause. A couple of live cashes (local bar tourneys) have relieved about 10% of the loss, but it’s still pretty devastating. Most of my losses were at mid-stakes 6-max, a game I was under rolled for (based on the swings). There was a lot of unexpected financial pressure this month in other areas, which I think contributed to a change in my play. Last night I played my first ring game in 2 weeks. I had a good idea of the table fairly quickly, but it didn’t matter. I played very few hands. My biggest A had an off-suit 9 with it, and my highest pair was 99. I dropped almost an entire buyin. As I stated, I played very few hands, but the ones I did play, I had trouble letting go of. Shit, I sound like one of the people I laugh at. Nice. I’m actually not feeling poorly about my game in general, just my selection of games really. I’ve spent about 40 hours the last 2 weeks reviewing. Lots of fun! I’m the worst loser ever. Really, I am. I think that is having the largest impact on me. Why can’t our minds be like that children’s toy you shake and everything disappears? Damn my obsessive tendencies.

On the plus side, I got into a new forum this month. They seem like a nice bunch. I’m a bit of a troll right now and I’m not contributing much of substance, but hopefully that will right itself as I get back to normal. I’ve been doing a ton of reading, and there is some great stuff. Thanks guys.

I cashed in the first week of the CP forum tourney. I think I could have gone deeper if I hadn’t been drunk. Mental note: don’t call (or push, I don’t remember) in a hand w/ a strong player w/ 22. Based on stack sizes I think I should have finished 3rd, but a cash is a cash. Hopefully I’ll have another next week. There is a live tourney the same night at the same time, and it’s a much better EV proposition. I think when we get into the mixed games I’ll play give it a shot. I suck at mixed games.

Here’s to October being better than September. I do enjoy fall…

Good Luck. Funny, in light of recent developements, that takes on a whole new meaning. Good Luck to all of us...

Just an update...

Well, I’m still not playing cash games yet. I’m still not feeling good about my game. I’m sticking with the SnG’s. I leak money slower that way. I really don’t take these seriously enough any more. So, that’s my online play. I’ll get back on the horse. I’ve been doing some reading and reviewing, but to tell you the truth. I haven’t had a revelation on my downswing. It seems a few small leaks compounded. Review is good.

As I’ve mentioned before I’ve been playing in a live “league”. It’s a bunch of tourneys w/ a big tourney at the end. Entry is $40. $20 for the current week and $20 for the final. The final is a big one and there is a base chip count and additional chips are awarded based on finishes in the preceding tournaments. I’d cashed in the first with the third being last nights.

Let me just say that I wasn’t happy going into the tourney. To start with, my confidence is down. Not a good thing in a NL tourney or cash game. On top of that I went to a party on Saturday night (great time btw), and I was feeling rather poorly on Sunday. To add to the fun, I had be up at 6:30am Sunday to go do some wiring and look at a car with a friend. Lets just say it was a rough day.

I finally made my way to the tournament and was running quite late. Luckily the tournament started late and I only missed 2 orbits worth of blinds (they never deal that fast when I’m there). Fortunately I was at a pretty damn soft table, and I had a player on my left that was perfect. He was kind enough to double a few hands after I sat down, and I ended up busting him. Here’s a hand, excuse the format, it was live and my memory stinks.

I’m in the SB, UTG & BB (above referenced player) are the other two, and SB is the above referenced player,

UTG goes all in for about 4x the BB. I call with Qc4cbelieving my fishy friend will call. He did, I paired my 4 on the flop w/ a backdoor flush draw (we both checked), the turn was a blank (we both checked), and the river was a queen. I bet about half the pot w/ my 2 pair, my fishy friend min raised, and I put him all in. He showed his AA. Bummer. At least his girlfriend didn’t have to wait for him to finish.

After the hand I could hear complaints behind me for betting the river. That it was impolite betting into a dry side pot with a knockout pending. Are you serious? It was the river and I believed I had the best hand. Sounds like a bet to me.

I entered the final table (7 of 8 cash) with about 40% of the chips in play. I ended up taking it down. I don’t think the win rates, but it’s a nice confidence booster. I may come up with a few hands and post them. I may not though. I'm tired.

Reload or Grind

Some rambling:

I remember why I stopped playing Sit-n-Go's. Man are they boring. I've been playing HU matches, which are nice (LHE & PLHE). They are quick, painless, but at the same time kind of like chinese water torture. I win 60+% of these, but they get boring. I went back and looked at some stats on these, and I was winning 69% at the 10+.5 level on stars. I'm not back there yet, but I'm getting it back. The key to these is to accumulate as many chips early as you can. You need to have a stick that can 1) be able to deal w/ a couple of bad beats in the late stages, and 2) bully your opponent in the later stages. Of course, at this level, about 20% of the matches are over almost literally before they start. um, this is money people...

I've also played a few low buyin 9 man NL SnG's. Why not play these instead of the 4.4 180 man's MTT's? I can understand if you want MTT practice, but a solid player (I kind of suck at NL) should be able to cash in these half the time. I used to cash in over 50% in the limit SnG's w/ a 40%+ ROI. Please, no liar responses. These are real #'s, mostly at the 5d level. I used to play and make enough for the car & cc payment before I moved on over to cash games. I didn't move up because I didn't cash out enough to re-build. I kept between 20 & 25 buyins in my account. I did go broke twice. It happens...I digress. I wonder what the ROI #'s are like for a good 180man player compared to a good SnG player. Just curious.

I thought I would try a 6.6 turbo LHE SnG. I forgot I entered it, and when it popped up, I realized it was a turbo limit omaha SnG. OOPS!! I have no real Omaha experience. I was prepared to suck. I hit a draw early, built a nice chip lead, and ended up going out on the bubble. These players are horrible! I mean really bad. I went out on a hand when my opponent had 8 outs to a straight (4 actaully as the k would have given me a boat) and he hit one of them on the river. I think Omaha cash games would be profitable if the play is anything close to this. I may try it as a change of pace when I get back to normal.

My dilemma:

I moved almost 50% of my bankroll to neteller. This was approx 3 weeks before my bad run. (I think bad in the previous sentence should be a proper noun, but I'll resist the urge). I'm at the point now where in order to play the game I usually play (and the # of tables), I would have to reload, or risk going broke in one bad session. Since I'm on a bad session roll, I really don't want to "risk" any more of my roll. Ack. I think the fact that I have this mindset to begin with answers the question for me. Folks who know me know I'm not a big fan of bankroll requirements. I think comfort has more to do with it. At this point the comfort isn't there, so I don't belong in that game. I'm going to grind the SnG's for the remainder of the month and re-evaluate things in October. I think...

Some notes:

I've been doing a ton of hand review. I think my pre-flop decisions are good. If I had to pick a negative, I was getting too passive towards the end of this slide. My post flop play in position was good, although I did call down too much. My post flop play out of position was absolutely horrendous. Part of this is running into big hands w/ my big hands, and part is calling. I didn't do numbers, but I'd be willing to bet that 80% of the time when I am out of position and I call, I'm behind. Now part of that time I'm drawing, but you get the idea.

I've been abusing the lower buyin players. I've never been one to type anything negative in the chat box. I usually put it in notes. The last few days I've been kind of mean. So, if I've played you in a low buyin SnG or heads up match and you sucked out on me, I'll say only this. I'm sorry you are a donkey. You deserve to lose, and you don't belong at the same table with me. I'll give you your 5 or 10 dollars back if you wash my car. Ha, bet you didn't think I was going there.

Good Day.

Is it possible that I suck?

In a word...NO.

It sure can seem that way though. I'm in the midst of the worst downswing I've ever had. It really blows! I'll give you the short version of what's happening. June was an ok month. July was a great month. August was a great month. The first 3 days of September constituted the best start I've ever had to a month. Then I had a day in which I logged my largest loss ever. Four figures worth of loss. To put it bluntly, I haven't had a winning day since. Brutal. 5/10 became 3/6. 3/6 became 2/4. 2/4 became 1/2. Sick. What do you do when you run like this? Mathematically it's bordering on not possible. I've reviewed my stats, and I'm in the red w/ KK & QQ. How the F do you manage that? Yesterday I noticed I wasn't "not hitting" my draws, I just didn't have any hand to draw with. My #'s are ok, my starting hands are ok. My biggest issue is that I've backed off over the last 4 or 5 days. I think it's a result of getting my d!$& stepped on so much the last 11 days.

What to do! Well, I'm not going to play cash games for at least a few days. I played some heads up SnG's yesterday. These are +ev for me. I'll throw in some 9-man limit SnG's over the weekend. I'm ONLY playing SnG's until I'm comfortable jumping into 2/4. That will most likely take me a few weeks. I flat out refuse to re-load. If this were November, I'd be stuck re-loading. It takes money to make money you know. For now, this will be a good exercise, and I'm too proud to re-load. Well, that and I'm a bit concerned this will continue. Based on typical ROR #'s using my combined win rate, SD, and bankroll, there is a 1.8% chance of this happening to me. It is a "statistical improbability". Yeah, my ass.

On the plus side, the belt for the mower will be in early next week. I miss riding the lawn mower. I'd like to do it a few more times before the snow flies. The leaves are starting to change. Freaking beautiful. I'm going to plan a day trip to Lechworth State Park in the next few weeks. It's a great place, especially before fall.

I've got some friends planning a "reunion" type of activity. I really don't want to go. One the one side, I can't believe someone has known me for 20 years without them killing me or me killing them. On the other side, I really don't like get togethers, and my schedule has sucked for the last 2 months. I just don't like people. I do enjoy telling stories about youth. Blissful, stupid youth. I guess we'll just have to see.

I'm going to play 20 to 25 SnG's this weekend. My goal is to win 70% of the HU ones, and have a 25% ROI on the rest. That's all I've got. Good luck at the tables...

Confidence. Shaken, not Stirred

There’s a new James Bond movie coming out in November. I watched the trailer and it looks entertaining. I’m a fan of the old 007 movies, but haven’t cared for the newer ones. I wasn’t at all impressed when I read the new actor playing Bond could drive his Aston Martin equipped with a manual transmission. Great start pal...

After a picture perfect start to the month, the last week has been a real blow. I’ve cut back on the 6-max to compensate, and I’m varying my games less. I’m tightening the belt and going back to basics…losing sucks. I think part of the issue is the pressure I feel from my decision. I suppose it’s good to get this out of the way now. Hopefully things will get back to normal by months end. If this keeps up for another few weeks this will be a bloody short experiment. On the plus side, it looks as though I’ve got a shot at making platinum level at stars this month. I didn’t think I’d do that until November.

I’ve been trying to change my mindset towards the game of poker as well as my bankroll. You have to have money to make money, and the less you have, the harder it is to play a strong, fearless game. For a bankroll to multiply properly it has to have a solid foundation.

I’ve been playing far too loose. I think the 5 & 6 max tables loosen me up over time. I really don’t enjoy these as much, but there is so much more profit opportunity. I’ve got my work cut out to make my goal for this month, so it’s back to the bread & butter. Perhaps in October I’ll step down to 2/4 and play a few thousand 6-max hands there. We’ll see.

As far as the goals go, I’m on pace for hands (due to 6-max), below where I should be for total hours (not enough time), and I’m way behind on the money end. I’ve got my work cut out for me. It’s a good thing I’ve got 2/3’s of the month left and it’s a good thing I’m better than my opponents. The confidence is shaken, but very mildly.
Oh, one more thing. I had an email wondering why I don’t post HH’s. I post some on the Card Player Forum in the limit section once in a while. Stop in and browse. It’s a ton more personal than some of the other forums out there and you’ll find some good (and often entertaining) poker discussion.

Good Luck at the Tables.

I can't believe I'm doing this...

In life, there are bad ideas, and then there are BAD IDEAS. Now I'm from the school of thought that if you're going to do something, do it well. So, I've decided to come up with the worst idea possible (obviously not in my eyes), and run with it.

I've been playing cards for longer than I'd like to admit, and poker was the first game I learned. Hold-em was introduced to me in my home game a few years ago and I hated it. I wasn't a big fan of no-limit betting games. I've always preferred the simpler games where I could exploit an edge. I started playing online, not because of the game itself, but the general softness of it. It's been over two years now, and it's a nice supplement to my income. It's enabled me to get some nice stuff that I normally would be too cheap to buy.

For the better part of two weeks, I seriously debated not blogging any more and cutting back on my posts, but I'm a glutton for punishment so here goes...

I'm a very private person. People that know me would say that's an understatement. I keep my personal information to myself, whether it's family, friends, or web-related people. Me posting this here goes against my prevailing personality trait. Geez, get to the point already... I lead a rather boring life and have a very boring job. In fact, work kind of makes me miserable, so I've decided not to do it any more. I'm going to call this a "poker vacation". I'm going to give up working full time and play poker. This is an experiment, and may only last 60 days. Who knows. When it comes to work, I'm a sponge. I like to try new things, but when I rise to the top, or lose the opportunity to learn new things. I get bored and leave. The last 10+ years of my professional career have been 3 to 5 years doing something followed by 6 months to 2 years off. Lather, rinse, repeat. Well, I've done my time, and now it's time for me to take some time off. I was ready to retire anyway. If I break even, great. I've got money saved. If I make money, even better. It prolongs the experiment. I've done the math over and over again. I have a small cost of living and I'm a good poker player. Here goes nothing...

This month I'm trying to adopt the mindset I'll need in the coming months. October will be my first month where I'll impose the financial end to my play, although I'll probably be working at least part of the month.

The stress level will be higher, but it will be self-imposed. Easier to deal with than the outside BS associated with work. Wish me luck.

On a separate note, I didn't get something I wanted. I feel like the fat kid in gym class. I don't know why I set my sights on things. On the plus side, things like this tend to help me focus on goals and proving people wrong. I guess it's not all bad.

Man I really don't want to hit that publish button right now...

Welcome to Fall...

Summer was great, but it sure flew by. It goes by faster every year. I won't be camping for Labor Day. It appears we'll be getting the remnants of tropical storm Ernesto. While the motorhome is weatherproof, I don't like getting dirty. Yeah, I'm a wuss.

September is here, and that means I've got to pick out some new things to work on to improve my game. Poker is a lot like golf in that you can never have a perfect game. There will always be something that needs work.

September Projects:

Calling Bets: I do this entirely too much. In my losing sessions, this is my worst problem. Callers don't win; raisers do, and folders lose less. Therefore, I really need to get back to a raise or fold mentality more of the time.

AF: This is down over the last month or so. I'm winning more so I'm not too worried about it, but the fact that I'm winning with a less aggressive style tells me I'm leaving bets on the table. I could be winning more.

Goals: Normally I play for entertainment with a certain dollar amount in mind. This will be the first month I play with a total time, hand, and dollar goal for the month. We'll see how it goes.

I've been playing some 5 and 6-max games. I was doing very when tables would start to break up, so I started adding a 3rd table of 6-max play. My last few sessions have been 6-max, to include several at the 5/10 level. I'm running just over 3bb/100 over about 3k hands. I can only 1 table and be comfortable at this level. It's certainly not my bread & butter, but it's nice to know I can play at this level. It's a blast. I can't believe there are players this poor at this level.

I've got some friends coming over this evening for a fire & cookout. Hopefully the weather hold off. It seems like fall showed up early this year. I don't mind a bit.